Markets are flipping between gloom and glee
Despite weak results from the tech sector, the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted their biggest weekly gain in a month, while the Nasdaq notched its largest advance since July 8. But, the economy is putting out mixed vibes. One day, an indicator...
The Silver Lining – Dividend Payouts hit New Record
Stocks finished sharply higher on Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak thanks in part to stronger than expected retail sales data and a moderation in inflation expectations. But Friday's rally still was not enough to overcome three days of selling earlier in the...
Predicting the end of the bear market
The Jobs report released on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added a stronger than expected 372,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate held steady at a healthy 3.6%, giving the Fed no reason to deviate from its plan for aggressive rate hikes. Investors may...
Up in Smoke – Economic slowdown and reversal of Roe
US economy is slowly but surely showing signs of deterioration in economic growth. Earlier this week, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.2, the weakest level since January. Forward looking indicators are projecting economic contraction in the third...
Bringing a end to the perfect storm
With June now over, we can say that the S&P 500 has suffered its toughest first half since Richard Nixon was in the White House. It was a rout for the history books, with the equity gauge down about 21%. Investors in consumer stocks witnessed a wipeout of $1.8...
Housing Market Cracks
The U.S. housing market is at the beginning stages of the most significant contraction in activity since 2006. It hasn’t shown up in many data series yet, but mortgage applications are pointing to a large decline over summer with home-purchase mortgage applications...
Investing for a recession – Part Deux
The fact that the Fed misread inflation last year is widely accepted. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly confessed in subsequent meetings “We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data”. Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “I was wrong about...
Investing for a recession
Persistent inflation, another Fed policy mistake, and recession fears have unnerved investors. It has been several decades since the stock market has had such a long streak of heavy losses. US stocks continue to be vulnerable to further losses until the Fed indicates...
The Fed’s work has been done by the stock market
The Federal Reserve minutes of the May meeting, released earlier this week, gave investors a pretty clear roadmap for the summer. The minutes highlighted the Fed’s focus on inflation and with rate hikes of 50 basis points in the June and July meetings. The stock...