Bringing a end to the perfect storm

With June now over, we can say that the S&P 500 has suffered its toughest first half since Richard Nixon was in the White House. It was a rout for the history books, with the equity gauge down about 21%. Investors in consumer stocks witnessed a wipeout of $1.8...

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Housing Market Cracks

The U.S. housing market is at the beginning stages of the most significant contraction in activity since 2006. It hasn’t shown up in many data series yet, but mortgage applications are pointing to a large decline over summer with home-purchase mortgage applications...

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Investing for a recession – Part Deux

The fact that the Fed misread inflation last year is widely accepted. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly confessed in subsequent meetings “We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data”. Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “I was wrong about...

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Investing for a recession

Persistent inflation, another Fed policy mistake, and recession fears have unnerved investors. It has been several decades since the stock market has had such a long streak of heavy losses. US stocks continue to be vulnerable to further losses until the Fed indicates...

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The Fed is cutting loose from the stock market

The U.S. economy could be heading for a recession in the next year, according to growing warnings from banks and economists, as a sudden bout of pessimism hammered financial markets this week. Of note was comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell earlier this week, that...

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