Wall Street ended the trading week higher, as investors balanced a stronger than expected March jobs report with rising geopolitical tensions that pushed oil prices sharply higher. Oil futures surged to an intraday peak of $113.97 per barrel on Thursday, as Wall Street weighed the implications of President Donald Trump’s national address alongside escalating developments in the Middle East conflict, fueling heightened uncertainty.
President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an speedy end in the coming weeks. Trump expressed interest in negotiating a deal with Iran, nearly four weeks after the United States and Israel attacked the country, but it is unclear if Tehran is willing to negotiate or if Israel would agree to a ceasefire.
For the week, the Nasdaq popped 4.4%, while the S&P jumped 3.3%, and the Dow added 2.9%.
Future Wealth’s View
In the fifth week of the war, Trump said the war had nothing to do with oil, then posted that the US should “take the oil & make a fortune”. He described the war as nearly over and simultaneously threatened weeks of escalating infrastructure strikes in a primetime address. And within 48 hours of that, he went from telling other nations they could reopen the strait of Hormuz themselves once the US left, to insisting Washington could “easily” do it. He then said the United States could stop attacking Iran within two to three weeks and that a deal is not necessary to end a war that has disrupted energy supplies and shaken the global economy.
When the markets have flashed danger, Trump has been quick with a social media post or a remark to claim the war he launched could soon end. Why Wall Street is believing any of his statements is a puzzle to us and millions of other investors.
The real challenge is figuring out – not when this war will end but what will be the repercussions of this war on the global economy. Much like the tariff debacle that spiked prices across the board and took almost a year to be absorbed by the economy, the war will have impacts that trickle through the global economy over the next 6-12 months.
Investors will do well to buckle down and not ignore these signs as Trump continues to flip flop everyday.